A ring announcer might put it this way: "In this corner we have DSL service. It features dedicated bandwidth, which is superior to cable?s ?party line? access. DSL offers secure communication lines while cable service has security concerns. Cable often slows during late round peak hours. And when small businesses realize they can get T-1 speeds for one-third the cost via DSL service, it will knock cable on the ropes." On the other hand, the announcer might add: "Despite DSL?s apparent advantages, cable service leads in the early rounds because it?s cheaper than DSL and installation is easier. Moreover, many believe it?s better to share cable?s promised 30Mbps than it is to own a dedicated DSL line at 1.5Mbps. And in the late rounds, DSL service will really need a fiber backbone throughout a city to help solve installation and maintenance problems. Moreover, not everyone can get DSL service -- customers must be located about 18,000 feet from a telephone central office to qualify for service, or there will be complicated truckroll or provisioning issues." Despite the different strengths and weaknesses, various research groups suggest that both access methods are acquiring punching power. Both Cable and DSL Modem Lines to Double For example, Carlsbad, Calif.,-based Computer Economics says home use of cable modems and DSL lines more than doubled over the past year. The firm projects that between 2000 and 2005 use of these technologies at home will multiply by more than five times. The company is an independent research firm specializing in helping businesses plan, manage, and control technology costs through advisory services, analyst support, and an advisory Web site. The firm says that in the home, cable modem use will grow from 5.7 million installed systems in 2000 to 27.6 million systems in 2005. Meanwhile DSL lines in the home will grow even more quickly in the next five years. Between 2000 and 2005, DSL lines installed in homes will increase from 2.4 million to 15.9 million, the firm says. "The rapid growth in cable modems and DSL within individual homes will be driven by the increasing demand of consumers looking for faster connection speeds that will allow them to experience the ever-growing amount of high-bandwidth entertainment and information online," said Computer Economics senior Research Analyst Catherine Huneke. The purchasers of these cable modems will be seeking faster Internet speeds, and theoretically, cable modems are now able to provide speeds of 10 Mbps and will increase to 30 Mbps in the near future. However, due to the cable line structure, many consumers will be disappointed when they find that the theoretical speeds are not met. As more users congest cable lines and more data bottlenecks occur, cable modem connections will remain at the current typical speed of 1.5 Mbps to 3.5 Mbps. Industry Studies Meanwhile, according to Insight Research, Parsippany, N.J., cable modems lead DSL in the broadband consumer race. The firm reported last month that cable modems lead the U.S. market for residential high-speed Internet access with nearly twice as many subscribers as DSL service. By the end of this year, two million U.S. homes will be connected to the Internet via cable compared to DSL's 1.1 million residential customers. According to Insight's report, "DSL vs. Cable Modems: The Future of High-Speed Internet Access," cable modems will dominate the residential broadband market for the next two to three years. Set Top Boxes with Built-in Modems to Reduce Costs Almost 70 percent of the U.S. population have cable TV service, supplying a ready-made potential customer base for cable modem service. Moreover, new set-top boxes with built-in cable modems will eliminate the need to purchase additional equipment, bringing the monthly cost of cable modem service on par with standard dial-up access, the report says. While DSL providers have made great strides over the last year, installing DSL access multiplexer or DSLAM equipment in more than 3,100 central offices, Insight says that cable's early lead, continuing network buildout and the ability to reach more homes will give cable a slight edge over DSL. "Cable companies were the first to realize the residential demand, first to provide high-speed access, and first to understand how to price it attractively,'' says Christopher Whitely, project manager at Insight. "Today, they are offering TV, Internet, and telephony service bundles with an aggressive marketing strategy. However, security problems, shared bandwidth bottlenecks, and slow cable plant upgrades will hinder progress if these issues aren't resolved soon." Additional data in the report includes five-year forecasts of DSL lines, DSL vs. cable modem penetration rates for residential and small/medium business customers, ILEC vs. CLEC DSL service revenue, price per DSL port, and DSLAM equipment revenue. The 269-page report, available for $4,195, also examines regulatory issues and competing broadband technologies. See http://www.insight-corp.com/adsl.html for a study excerpt and table of contents. INSIGHT RESEARCH, Parsippany, NJ, is a source for telecommunications market research and strategic analysis.